Why the women will make the tourney

It’s a simple case for the Chicago women’s soccer team. They have a strong regional win percentage bolstered by the region’s third-strongest schedule, and they have key regional wins over Wash U and Wheaton.

The Maroons will be the first team to be selected out of the Central region, with Wheaton and Ill. Wesleyan following in that order. I don’t imagine the Central will get a fourth team—Calvin has a decent case but probably too low of a regional win percentage in the national selection.

If you’re interested in seeing the Central’s credentials, click on the link below (will open in a new window):

FINAL NCAA rankings of Central Region

How to read it:

1. Chicago’s win over Wheaton earlier this year was by far their most important until the Wash U victory yesterday. That made up for the loss to Ill. Wesleyan and kept Chicago above those two teams last week.

2. Wash U and Augustana both held onto their conference leads and made this a simple picture in the region, where the top five teams will all make it.

BOTTOM LINE: I’m becoming more and more convinced that Chicago is going to host for the first two rounds. Wheaton would come to Stagg Field and probably be a second-round opponent based on seeding. I could see WIAC champion Wisconsin–Stevens Point coming to Chicago, as well.

The alternative that I see is that the Maroons head to Augustana, which is stretching the limits of travel for the first couple rounds.